Solanum wild relative species indicate varying ecological resilience to climate change in Benin (West Africa)
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Abstract
Crop wild relatives are rich reservoirs of valuable genes for improving crop yields, but they have long been underestimated and neglected. Unfortunately, these resources are severely threatened in their natural habitats due to increasing stress caused by climate change and human disturbance. Recently, these wild species began receiving increasing attention for their effective inventory and sustainable conservation and use for the benefit of humanity. This study investigated the current distribution and forecasted the potential future climate change impact on ten Solanum wild relative species in Benin, assessed the effectiveness of protected areas in maintaining viable populations, and evaluated their conservation status using the International Union for Conservation of Nature Categories and Criteria. We used species distribution models under two socioeconomic pathways SSP370 and SSP585 projecting species ranges for the 2055 and 2085 time horizons. The models demonstrated high accuracy with an average value of the Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistic of 0.89 and 0.74, respectively. The most suitable areas were located in the Sudano-Guinean and Guineo-Congolian zones of Benin. Furthermore, a significant proportion of these suitable areas is projected to become unsuitable for most wild Solanum species. Surprisingly, most of the identified hotspots were poorly represented within the existing protected area network, which appears insufficient to provide long-term refugia for the species. Nevertheless, new suitable areas were identified outside the current protected zones. Coordinated efforts are urgently needed to sustainably manage the populations of target species to enhance their future persistence in Benin.
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